Welcome！

I am Xunchao Zhang. I am currently a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Political Science Department. My research interest lies in the political psychology of irrationality in the realm of international security. I study individual-level factors that lead to policy preferences and behaviors that potentially undermine national security. Specifically, I use experimental methods, text analysis, and large-N analysis to investigate how revenge, motivated reasoning, and expatriate national identity contribute to the escalation and persistence of international conflicts.

My dissertation delves into a puzzling aspect of international relations: why does military retaliation, often seen as motivated by deterrence, frequently escalate conflicts instead of preventing them? While conventional wisdom and strategic discourse might advocate for retaliation as a means of deterrence, I propose that the real impetus often stems from an intrinsic desire for revenge. Though the realm of international relations has explored the emotional mechanism and individual predispositions towards revenge, we lack theoretical and empirical understanding regarding which international scenarios are likely to incite the desire for revenge. Using survey experiments, large-N analysis of historical conflict data, and in-depth case studies—I posit that the primary trigger for revenge in international relations is the magnitude of suffering experienced by one’s ingroup. Consequently, retaliatory actions are less about strategic deterrence and more about inflicting equivalent pain on the adversary, potentially setting off a revenge cycle. Interestingly, the mere anticipation of a desire for revenge from an adversary’s public can prompt greater restraint in foreign policy preferences, serving as a deterrent in its own right. These insights not only challenge the traditional deterrence paradigm but also enrich our understanding of international rivalries.